THE IMPACT OF THE 2026 INCLUSIVE FISCAL POLICY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN DISADVANTAGED REGIONS: A STUDY OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS THEORY AND THE IMPLEMENTATION OF PMK 105/2025 IN INDONESIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20095015Keywords:
inclusive fiscal policy, PMK 105/2025, PPh 21 DTP, growth in disadvantaged regions, development economics, regional convergence, fiscal multiplierAbstract
The 2026 inclusive fiscal policy through PMK 105/2025 on Government-Bearing Income Tax (DTP) has proven effective in driving economic growth in underdeveloped regions in Indonesia with a consumption multiplier effect of 1.6–1.8x among 15 million workers in labour-intensive sectors (textiles, furniture, tourism). A review of development economics theory confirms alignment with the Solow convergence model, Romer’s endogenous growth model, and Hirschman’s ‘big push’ theory to break the Myrdal circular cumulative causation in 128 priority districts. Implementation in Q1 2026 recorded a +4.8% increase in the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of underdeveloped regions, a +22% rise in employment, and a 1.8 percentage point reduction in poverty, despite being hampered by regional fiscal capacity (85% dependence on General Allocation Funds) and governance-related leakages. Recommendations include an extension to 2027 with digitalised claims, performance-based transfers, and integration of DID-DTP to achieve 25% regional convergence within 5 years towards the 2025–2029 National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN).
Downloads
References
Aslan. (2019, January 17). Pergeseran Nilai Di Masyarakat Perbatasan (Studi tentang Pendidikan dan Perubahan Sosial di Desa Temajuk Kalimantan Barat) [Disertasi dipublikasikan]. https://idr.uin-antasari.ac.id/10997/
Bowo, F. A. (2023). Penguatan UMKM Melalui Pembayaran Digital: Strategi Digital Marketing Dalam Era Baru. Jurnal Studi Interdisipliner Perspektif, 22(2), 134–140.
Capoani, L., & Martini, P. (2024). The Role of Geographic and Sectoral Diversification, and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index: Insights from Italian Provinces and Regions. https://iris.unive.it/handle/10278/5108468
Dept, I. M. F. F. A. (2017). Fiscal Monitor, October 2017: Tackling Inequality. International Monetary Fund.
Dev Bhatta, S., & Sharma, S. K. (2006). The Determinants and Consequences of Chronic and Transient Poverty in Nepal (SSRN Scholarly Paper No. 1753615). Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1753615
Eliyah, E., & Aslan, A. (2025). STAKE’S EVALUATION MODEL: METODE PENELITIAN. Prosiding Seminar Nasional Indonesia, 3(2), Article 2.
Gadenne, L., & Singhal, M. (2014). Decentralization in Developing Economies. Annual Review of Economics, 6(Volume 6, 2014), 581–604. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-080213-040833
Hill, H. (2000). The Indonesian Economy. Cambridge University Press.
Lessmann, C. (2009). Fiscal Decentralization and Regional Disparity: Evidence from Cross-Section and Panel Data. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 41(10), 2455–2473. https://doi.org/10.1068/a41296
Lewis, W. A. (1994). Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour. In Paradigms in Economic Development. Routledge.
Motik, D. P., & Ridwan, M. (2025). Indonesia’s Economic Projection in 2025: Assessing Supporting Factors and Challenges to Economic Growth. International Journal of Innovation and Thinking, 2(8), 462–473. https://doi.org/10.71364/ijit.v2i8.68
Oates, W. E. (2005). Toward A Second-Generation Theory of Fiscal Federalism. International Tax and Public Finance, 12(4), 349–373. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10797-005-1619-9
O’Hara, P. A. (2008). Principle of Circular and Cumulative Causation: Fusing Myrdalian and Kaldorian Growth and Development Dynamics. Journal of Economic Issues, 42(2), 375–387. https://doi.org/10.1080/00213624.2008.11507146
Psacharopoulos, G., & Patrinos, H. A. (2018). Returns to investment in education: A decennial review of the global literature. Education Economics, 26(5), 445–458. https://doi.org/10.1080/09645292.2018.1484426
Ravallion, M. (2016). The Economics of Poverty: History, Measurement, and Policy. Oxford University Press.
Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002–1037. https://doi.org/10.1086/261420
Smoke, P., & Lewis, B. D. (1996). Fiscal decentralization in Indonesia: A new approach to an old idea. World Development, 24(8), 1281–1299. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(96)00042-3
Solow, R. M. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65–94. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884513
Versaci, G. (2018). Personal Data and Contract Law: Challenges and Concerns about the Economic Exploitation of the Right to Data Protection. European Review of Contract Law, 14(4), 374–392. https://doi.org/10.1515/ercl-2018-1022
Wu, A.-C., & Kao, D.-D. (2022). Mapping the Sustainable Human-Resource Challenges in Southeast Asia’s FinTech Sector. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15(7). https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15070307
Zed, M. (2008). Metode Penelitian Kepustakaan. Yayasan Pustaka Obor Indonesia.
Zeff, S. A. (2013). The objectives of financial reporting: A historical survey and analysis. Accounting and Business Research, 43(4), 262–327. https://doi.org/10.1080/00014788.2013.782237
Badan Pengawasan Keuangan dan Pembangunan. (2024). Laporan audit insentif fiskal daerah 2023. BPKP.
Badan Pengawasan Keuangan dan Pembangunan. (2026). Evaluasi implementasi PMK 105/2025 Q1 2026. BPKP.
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2025). Indeks kepercayaan konsumen dan Gini ratio 2025. BPS
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2026). Pertumbuhan ekonomi regional Q1 2026. BPS.
Bappenas. (2025). Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah Nasional 2025-2029.
Bappenas. (2026). Proyeksi dampak fiskal inklusif terhadap kemiskinan 2026. Kementerian PPN/Bappenas.
Direktorat Jenderal Pajak. (2026). Laporan implementasi PMK 105/2025 triwulan I. Kementerian Keuangan.
Kemenko PMK. (2025). Optimalisasi dana insentif fiskal daerah tertinggal. Kemenko PMK.
Kemenko PMK. (2026). Laporan koordinasi implementasi PMK 105/2025. Kemenko PMK.
Kemenko PUPR. (2025). Dampak infrastruktur pada linkages ekonomi regional. Kemenko PUPR.
Kementerian Dalam Negeri. (2026). Kapasitas fiskal daerah tertinggal 2026. Kemendagri.
Kementerian Keuangan. (2025a). Peraturan Menteri Keuangan Nomor 105 Tahun 2025. Kemenkeu.
Kementerian Keuangan. (2025b). Reformasi transfer ke daerah. DJPK.
Kementerian Keuangan. (2025c). Green bonds untuk daerah prioritas. DJPPR.
Kementerian Keuangan. (2026). Proyeksi APBN 2026 dan stimulus fiskal. Kemenkeu.
Kementerian Pariwisata dan Ekonomi Kreatif. (2026). Dampak stimulus fiskal pada pariwisata daerah. Kemenparekraf.
Kementerian Pendidikan. (2026). Alokasi DAK Dikbud daerah tertinggal. Kemendikbud.
World Bank. (2023). Indonesia economic prospects: Fiscal policy for growth. World Bank.
World Bank. (2024). Rural infrastructure and inclusive growth. World Bank.
